Dr. Paola Faggian

Sustainable Development and Energy Souce Department, Italy

 

Talk Title
Investigating climate-change hazards that might impact electric infrastructures
Talk Abstract

There is an urgent need for an effective and harmonized framework to develop climate resilient solutions to ensure the necessary level of security in energy production and supply. To support the development of national adaptation policies and measures addressing climate change impacts on energy sector, the projected changes of extreme events such as hot-days, droughts and floods have to be considered, even if the incremental changes of meteorological variable (in particular, temperature and precipitations) are not to be neglected as they also represents important hazards for infrastructures. To infer quantitative assessments about climate changes over Italy, some investigations have been made on the basis of several climate models provided by EU-funded Project Euro-CORDEX at high horizontal resolution (0.11°, about 12 km) under the hypotesis of two different socio-economic pathways, i.e. by considering the moldels’ results in the case of very high baseline radiative forcings (RCP8.5) and mitigation scenario (RCP2.6). After filtering the models with limited performances in reconstructing the current climate, multi-model climate change scenarios have been computed, considering that multi-model ensemble means give better accuracy and reliability about probabilistic projections compared to single model realizations. The climate changes have been investigated by comparing the base-line period (1971–2000) with short (FUT1=2021-2050), medium (2041-2070) and long term (FUT2=2051-2080) future scenarios. Four ETCCDI indexes (WMO, 2009), designed to describe extreme weather and climate events, has been considered: SUmmer days (SU), Tropical Nights (TR), Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), extreme precipitations (R99PTOT). Without mitigation actions (RCP 8.5), the more significant results highlight in the summer: a warming of about 2°C in the next decades, 3°C in the mid of the century, and more than 5°C in the last thirty-years period; a precipitation decrease ranging between 10 and 20% in the first half of the century, until 50% at the end of it. In the summer season hot days are expected to intensify by increasing of about 10 days at short term, till 40 more days in the last part of the XXI century. Tropical nights will also increase ranging from 10 to 40 more summer events along the century with high confidence. CDD are expected to increase significantly during the warm months, specially over peninsular Italy. The R99P scenarios point out with some confidence increased risks for extreme precipitation over Northern Adriatic Coasts and Gulf of Genoa in spring, Tyrrhenian and Adriatic Coasts in fall season. In the context of sustainable development (RCP2.6), climate changes are projected to be much lower: the significant precipitation reduction expected in RCP8.5 in summer is avoied and there are no significant changes in CCD. However it is worth noting that some climate impacts can no longer be avoided. Despite some uncertainties, R99P cenarios point out an increase of extreme precipitations in the winter and spring; SU maps highlight an average increase between 2 and 5 episodes in summer season. Tropical nights will also increase: about 5 more events are expected in the three future scenarios but there is some confidence in the results only at short term. 

keywords
Climate models, climate change projections, extreme events, electric system, planning resilience
Short Biography

Graduated in Physics at the University of Milan in 1990, she joined CISE in 1991 where she has been dealing with research activities concerning air pollution and atmospheric dispersion modelling, focusing on numerical schemes about the daily evolution of the Planetary Boundary Layer under different thermodynamic conditions. In 1998 she joined ENEL Research Centre, where she was involved in national projects to improve the performances of hydrostatic meteorological models used operatively for weather forecasts over Europe. From 2000 to 2004 she was working in the CESI B.U Environment, dealing with research projects to advance weather forecasts by applying non-hydrostatic models. In the following years she has been working in RSE, in the Environment and Sustainable Development and Energy Sources Department, involved in scientific activities concerning results provided by IPCC global circulation models as well as European climate simulations realized in the framework of EU funded Projects. She has gained 15 years of experience in analysing outputs of state-of-art regional models (ENSEMBLES, Med-CORDEX and Euro-CORDEX) with the aim to elaborate climate change projections (due to changes in mean climate, variability and extremes weather events), under different hypothesis of socio-economic and emission scenarios, on the Mediterranean Basin with particular interest for the climate change impacts on Italian Electric System to support the planning, development and management of energy system, with reference to the adaptation and mitigation actions

Target Audience
Students, Post doctoral, Industry, Doctors and professors
Speaker-intro video
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